Google Quantum AI’s director of hardware, Julian Kelly, believes the field is closing in on a major milestone: practical quantum computing applications that classical computers simply can’t match. In a recent interview, Kelly stated that within five years, quantum machines could begin solving real-world problems beyond current computational capabilities.

The optimism follows Google’s recent progress in quantum error correction and aligns with broader tech industry moves, including Microsoft’s novel chip and Nvidia’s growing involvement in the quantum space.

Still, skepticism persists, with experts pointing out that substantial technical challenges remain before quantum computing becomes mainstream.

Why It Matters: Quantum computing has long been seen as a highly theoretical pursuit, an exciting but distant possibility for solving problems too complex for classical machines. That may be changing. If Google’s five-year projection proves accurate, quantum computing could transition from lab-based research into a tool with a practical, real-world impact.

• Simulating Physics, Creating Data: What Comes First? The earliest real-world quantum use cases are likely to center around simulating complex physical systems, particularly in areas just beyond classical computational limits. Kelly also suggested quantum machines could generate novel datasets to support AI development. However, he cautioned that this intersection is still speculative, today’s AI models aren’t designed to run on quantum hardware, and significant architectural differences remain.

• Microsoft, Nvidia Join the Quantum Race: Google isn’t the only tech giant making quantum moves. In February, Microsoft unveiled a quantum chip built using Majorana particles, a theoretical construct that the company claims required creating a “new state of matter.” While the scientific community continues to evaluate that claim, the announcement underscores the diverse approaches being explored.

• Challenges Remain: Qubits and Error Correction: Despite the buzz, quantum hardware is still in its early stages. Google’s most advanced quantum computer uses 105 qubits, a far cry from the estimated 1 million error-corrected qubits experts say are needed for large-scale, reliable applications. Progress in error correction and system stability remains essential, though recent breakthroughs have narrowed the gap faster than many expected.

• Optimism vs. Skepticism: The Quantum Countdown: The timeline for practical quantum computing remains a subject of debate. While leaders like Kelly are optimistic, past predictions have missed the mark, and some industry voices remain cautious. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang initially cast doubt on near-term breakthroughs in January, but later revised his stance, acknowledging the field’s potential while emphasizing the complexity involved.

• Timeline Debate Persists: Industry experts remain split on when quantum computers will deliver real-world value. While some see signs of tangible progress, others caution that similar predictions have missed before. Despite uncertainty, funding continues to rise from governments and venture capital, reflecting global interest in securing a lead in this emerging field.

Go Deeper -> Google quantum exec says tech is ‘5 years out from a real breakout’ – CNBC

Google Executive Says Quantum Applications Could Arrive In Five Years – Quantum Insider