In December 2022, Chief Executive surveyed CEOs about their predictions for 2023, covering areas such as the stock market, the economy, inflation, interest rates, and more. As 2023 comes to a close, a retrospective on CEO predictions reveals a mixed performance.
Correct Predictions
In retrospect, CEOs demonstrated a commendable level of accuracy in several key predictions for 2023. Notably, their foresight on the stock market’s performance proved astute, with 53% correctly forecasting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to land between 35,000 and 40,000. The Dow not only reached this range but exceeded 37,000, validating their prognostications.
Additionally, CEOs exhibited keen insight into economic dynamics, accurately predicting the trajectory of inflation. A substantial 82% foresaw a gradual subsiding of inflation throughout 2023, aligning with the subsequent decline from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022
Incorrect Predictions
On the flip side, certain predictions by CEOs for 2023 demonstrated a divergence from the actual outcomes. Despite their success in forecasting the stock market and inflation, their economic projections faltered. A significant 90% inaccurately predicted a mild recession in the United States, as the economy showcased consistent growth, a robust job market, and a surprisingly strong holiday season
In the realm of interest rates, CEOs’ forecasts were close but not exact. Nearly half expected rates to fall between 4 and 5 percent, while 42% correctly foresaw rates surpassing 5 percent, aligning with the current range of 5.25 to 5.50 percent.
The Wrap
In summary, while CEOs had successes in predicting the stock market and inflation, they faced challenges in forecasting economic trends. The mix of correct and incorrect predictions underscores the complexity of anticipating various factors influencing business and the job market.
Go Deeper –> 2023: How CEOs’ Predictions Stacked Up – Chief Executive
