As 2023 comes to a close, technology leaders are navigating an environment with a conflux of economic volatility and technological innovation. Inflation has been a significant factor across all sectors affecting operational costs and, by extension, revenue and hiring projections.
Our latest survey results, jointly presented by the patrons of The National CIO Review and members of the CIO Professional Network, offer a nuanced look at how CIOs’ expectations have evolved over the past year.
With interest rates holding steady but inflation and geopolitical uncertainties looming large, these macroeconomic factors serve as the backdrop for our in-depth exploration of CIOs’ revenue and hiring expectations for the first six months of 2024.
Let’s dive in.
Last year, 45% of technology executives were optimistic about their company’s revenue growth. This year, that figure has seen a noticeable increase, with 52% of CIOs expecting an increase in their company’s revenue during the first six months of the year. This 7% year-over-year rise in optimism is noteworthy, especially in the context of broader economic concerns that continue to weigh heavily on technology leaders and their organizations.
Interestingly, 26% of CIOs expect their company’s revenue to remain unchanged, while 22% are bracing for a decrease in their company’s revenue. With over 46% expecting negative or flat growth, this is a marked shift from last year when a larger percentage (55%) were uncertain or negative about their company’s revenue growth. The current data suggests a slight but significant shift toward optimism.
One year ago, 30% of CIOs expected an increase in their company’s hiring, 10% anticipated a decrease, and a significant 60% foresaw no change. This year, the landscape has shifted.
About 23% of CIOs are expecting an increase in their company’s IT hiring, a 7 point decrease from last year. Another 23% who anticipate a decrease this year is a notable increase from last year’s 10%. However, the majority this year, at 54%, expect no change, which is slightly lower than last year’s 60%.
This shift in distribution suggests a more conservative stance on hiring compared to last year. While last year’s data showed a larger group expecting no change, this year indicates a cautious but somewhat more polarized approach, likely influenced by broader economic factors and uncertainties.
The hiring trends also reflect a broader industry sentiment. While technology hiring is still outpacing the national average, the caution among CIOs indicates a more strategic approach to talent acquisition and management.
The Wrap
While the economy is showing some signs of healing, it has not returned to pre-2022 levels of growth. However, there is hope among CIOs that was not present this time last year, specifically in forecasting revenue gain for their organizations. Inflation is down considerably from this point last summer, and companies are shifting resources toward emerging technologies like generative AI.
CIOs are expecting to ride this wave of cautious optimism into the new year with a shift from mere survival to strategic evolution. This will require, in some cases doing more without a substantial lift in resources, a sign that technology leaders have the opportunity to actively shape the future of their organizations rather than simply reacting to it.
